Tag Archives: uefa

Europe’s Poor Performance… and Other Useless Stats

Ronaldo_2956126bThe major story lines leading up to this World Cup were all about things that had little or nothing to do with football.  Faulty or incomplete stadiums, paltry labour conditions, a populace acting as unhappy hosts, the ever-present whispers of bribes and corruption… this is how we talked about Brazil.

Two weeks into the tournament, however, and the story is very much about the game itself.   Wide-open play has meant a treasure chest of goals, the most ever for the group stage.  Out of the 48 matches so far, only eight of them have been draws, and only five of those have been nil-nil.  Meanwhile, there have been a lot of shutouts (almost half of the matches) but only 13 games have been either 0-0 or 1-0 finals.  For this writer anyway, this has been the best World Cup since France ’98.

However, several European nations might disagree with me.   Out of the 13 UEFA teams in the tournament, only the Netherlands, Greece (a first for Ethniki), Belgium, Germany, France and Switzerland are going to the Group of 16.   For the second World Cup in a row, less than half of the European teams are progressing.  Is this because the former colonial powers can’t play away from their home continent? Maybe… but the European influence has been declining for some time.

If you take the percentage of total participants in each tournament* allocated to UEFA (in 2010, that was 13/32 or 40.625%) and multiply it by the percentage of European teams that make the knockout round (again in 2010, it was 6/16 or 37.5%), you can — imperfectly — see well how the confederation performs.

There are a couple of trends that emerge.  First of all, the number of UEFA spots have pretty much stayed the same, with one or two additions or subtractions.  But as the tournament has expanded, this has meant the Europeans’ share of World Cup berths has declined.  Nothing shocking here.

A familiar sight for England fans over the last half-century

A familiar sight for England fans over the last half-century

What is changing is who are winning the knockout berths.  At least three CONMEBOL teams have qualified for the next round in three out of the last five tournaments; they only got two spots in 1994 and 2002, and Brazil won both of those anyway (FYI the Brazilians have only missed the knockout round once, in 1966… between World Cup victories in 1962 and 1970).   Last tournament, two CONCACAF teams reached the knockout stage; this year, there are three.  For the first time ever, two African teams have reached the Group of 16 in 2014.

The reason for the European decline are fuzzy.  Some blame the flood of foreign players — particularly South Americans — into the big European leagues, pushing home-grown players aside and making big clubs less likely to develop their own youngsters.  Others say European players lack the desire to achieve greatness for country, because they are getting paid so much by their clubs.

However, it could all back to simple maths.  The change starts to be noticeable in Mexico’s 1986 World Cup.  João Havelange had won the FIFA presidency in 1974 on promises to let more developing nations into the tournament.   Twelve years later, Morocco was the first African Nation to qualify for the knockout round along with hosts, Mexico.  It was the first time two teams from one of the “other” confederations made it through with the big boys.   Since then, both CAF and CONCACAF have had at least one team in the elimination rounds, and CONMEBOL get at least 50 percent of its teams into the knockouts.

Capello

Capello thinks about how to spend his millions

What is more interesting is who is out.  The platinum generation of Spanish footballers finally ran out of currency, dropping out at the group stage for the first time since 1998.  Their Euro 2012 final opponents, Italy, missed two successive knockout rounds for the first time since the 1960’s.   The “golden generations” of Portugal and England both finally sputtered out.   Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia still have far to go to match the prowess of their Yugoslavian predecessors.  Russia may be rethinking Fabio Capello’s £6.7M annual salary… although the gaffer claims he did his job by getting the side into the tournament for the first time in 12 years.  In fairness to Capello, he didn’t have his talisman, Roman Shirokov.  Imagine if Óscar Tabárez’ Uruguay had to play with Luis Suarez… oh right.

Some caveats:

– like Brazil in ’94 and ’02, Spain won in 2010 despite a record-low representation by European teams.  However, the other three tournaments that had a low knockout representation by Europe went to South American sides: 1950, 1970, and 2002.

– a more likely determinate of World Cup success is tournament location.  If it’s in Europe, a UEFA team will likely win the whole thing.  If not, look to CONMEBOL.  The only exceptions are South Africa 2010 for Europe and Sweden 1958 for South America (where UEFA had seven of eight playoff births but Brazil still won).

– the set up of this year’s tournament tree means that only one of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay will advance to the semi-finals, while the Europeans could still end up having six teams in the quarter-finals.

Brent P. Lanthier

*Only post-war World Cups. The three tournaments before 1950 had no group stage, and were straight knockout competitions.

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Super Cup = Super Farce

Soccernet called today’s meeting of the Champions League, er, champions and the Europa League winners as the “creme de la creme” of European football.

Puh-leez.

The title is a farce. It made sense when the European Cup Winers played the Cup Winners’ Cup holder.  But now the latter has been abolished and melted into some bastard tournament that also features a rank mix of Champions League losers and domestic also-rans.

Case in point: Atletico Madrid took the inaugural EL title by winning a total of three proper European games. Three.

After qualifying for the Champions League group stages, they were demoted to Europa after failing to win a single game. They managed a win before needing away goals in the next two rounds to advance. They then made it to the final after beating Liverpool on aggregate, winning the first leg and then squeaking an extra-time goal in 2-1 loss.  An overtime defeat of Fulham in Hamburg made them unlikely champions of a Mickey Mouse tournament.

So Atletico entered today’s game as heavy underdogs… underlined by their ninth place finish in La Liga last season (which would not even have earned them their current berth in this season’s Europa League — a place guaranteed for the title holders) .  They should have crumbled at the feet of Italy’s treble winners.  Enter Rafa Benitez.

What other reason could there be for Atletico’s defeat of mighty Internazionale? The newly-installed Benitez started 10 of the 11 starters from last season’s CL final.  It was a squad heavy with superstars, laden with hardware from this season’s draw ceremony.  So what other excuse could there be for a dull first-half without a single shot on goal?

No Inter success for Rafa Benitez

Rafa’s past seems to bite him in the ass. It was two former Liverpool players — Djibril Cisse and Sebastian Leto — who got the better of Inter when they played Panathinaikos in Toronto last month.  Rafa has had to follow the footsteps of a bitter rival to the north of Italy when Mourniho took the helm of the Spaniard’s true’ love, Real Madrid. And tonight, it was the Spanish capital’s lesser light that got the better of Rafa’s supposed ready-made superpower. Atletico wouldn’t even allow him the consolation of a penalty, after Los Rojiblancos’s keeper made a brilliant save.

But to what end? Can Atletico now say they are the real champions of Europe? Unlikely.  It’s one more of UEFA’s byzantine methods to create more games for more gate and more TV revenue, while allowing some substandard team to put a piece of silverware in the trophy case.

If this is the creme de la creme, then UEFA should kill the cow… because they are just diluting the product.

Brent Lanthier

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Filed under Champions League, La Liga, Serie A

Who’ll be there in Brazil?

Got World Cup hangover? There’s no better way to deal with it than to discuss the next World Cup. One major talking point sure to arise for Brazil 2014 is which confederation will receive the extra place. As host nation, Brazil receives an automatic place in four years time. So let the debate begin, should South America be allowed an extra place for the next World Cup?  By giving CONMEBOL an extra spot, you obviously have to take a place away from another confederation.

The argument is that five of the top ten teams in South Africa were from South America and, with the World Cup in their backyard next time, they should be allowed an extra place, like Africa just had this time. However, that would mean 60% of the CONMEBOL’s member nations qualifying.  UEFA may argue it deserves an extra place, since seven of the last eight semi-finalists have been European.  Asia will also campaign for the spot, hoping Japan and South Korea’s fine tournaments, coupled with Asia’s enormous population, warrants another spot in Brazil. Whatever the decision, FIFA will have to make it quickly… CONMEBOL qualifiers begin next year.

Hadi Zogheib

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The Lyon merry-go-round

Hadi Zogheib

It is understood, in Europe, that the great players desire to play in the great leagues. This allows players to showcase their talents to a larger audience and enables them to reap the benefits of larger financial contracts and endorsements. Manchester United? Sure. Barcelona and Real Madrid? Obviously. Inter or Juve? Absolutely. Lyon? Er. Maybe for a while, but then…


Which is what makes Lyon’s staying power all the more impressive. They churn out talent – but it rarely sticks around. Michael Essien, Florent Malouda, Mahamadou Diarra, Gregory Coupet, Tiago, Eric Abidal, John Carew, Karim Benzema, Hatem Ben Arfa. They’ve all been there and had a hand in at least one of the five consecutive Ligue 1 titles Lyon boasts. And, inevitably, they’ve all left. Who wants to stick around when Chelsea, Real and Juve come calling?

It is understood that others will soon leave as well. Hugo Lloris is one of the top rated goalkeepers in Europe. Lisandro Lopez may be the next Diego Milito, looked over by the big clubs until late in his career. And the list of suitors for Aly Cissokho is too long to mention.

But until they leave, there is some unfinished business for the club. For all its domestic success, Lyon have had very little to cheer about in the Champions League. That’s all changed this year under manager Claude Puel. Down only 1-0 to Bayern after the away leg, Lyon has never had a better chance to get to the final of Europe’s biggest football stage. Wait, I thought you had to leave Lyon to go deep in the Champions League. Just ask Essien, Malouda or Benzema. Oh right, their teams have already been eliminated.

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